A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
